I'm thinking I might have to take a chance on this after more supply comes to market and pushes down the price further. The dynamics of this ICO make it like the minable currencies with inflation. I suppose once over 1/2 the coins have been issued but before blockchain launch, it might be an optimal time to buy at reduced price. If they truly do force EOS token buyers to become bagholders, they would destroy their public reputations forever and no one will use their platform. They have to be worth something. Considering they're issuing 90% of token publicly, I would hope that means we get 90% of the EOS coins once the blockchain goes live.
Yeah, I definitely think everyone has to do some form of that calculus in their own heads. Its tough because there are competing factors that could influence it. For example, if you hold all development and news as a non-factor, the supply increase that you mention will likely drive the price down. However, you have to weigh that out against the possibility of other factors raising the price between now and the middle of next year - anything from the September release of the testnet being a success to the simple notion that more people will find out about EOS. Not to mention other influencing factors such as regulatory changes, correlation to the total crypto market, etc.
For me personally, Ive chosen not to spend my time trying to calculate the perfect time/price of entry. Instead, Im much more interested in determining whether I want to participate at all (FWIW, I do) by evaluating the project on the basis of the value its attempting to bring to the market and the likelihood of that happening successfully. Based on the outcome of that analysis, I set an allocation to EOS and dollar cost average my way there. I figure that if the project is successful, it wont matter nearly as much (note: Im not saying doesnt matter at all) whether Im in at $0.80 or $1.00 or $1.50.
Two possible approaches:
- Gamble on the promise with the hopes of being rewarded with a gain that is commensurate with the additional risk taken
or
- Wait until after the official EOS blockchain is released next summer and acquire actual EOS tokens/coins. You'll miss you on some gains but surely not the bulk of long-term value
But don't forget, if you pick to wait for major release you may lose the opportunity to get really high gains
The difference could be 20x growth for the first choice and 50x for the second one. It is a huge difference.
Yes, we are in agreement. That difference of ~30x that you mention is what I was referencing by the gain that is commensurate with the additional risk taken.
In the context of the entire investment world, those multiples (the 20x or the 50x) hardly exist outside of VC investing and even then, only for the very best. Its hard to measure the risk-adjusted return of crypto investing but even that fact notwithstanding, I have a hard time seeing a 20x as anything other than an absolute investment grand-slam.