The people who predict an 80% correction are funny. You can't take something that happened in the past, and say "see, it'll happen again!". The public's awareness of cryptocurrency is 50 times higher than what it was back then. Corrections will not be as deep as they were in the past, simply because there are many waiting on the sidelines to buy in. And when they fail to get their target buy points, the price will move up to new highs on FOMO.
As an interesting side note, I follow some non-crypto trading communities, and the number of never crypto types who are changing their minds is growing by the day. It's incredible to observe.
Times change but human behavior does not. How many folks in this thread were certain the Bithumb promotion would catapult XMR to new highs?
It did rise from around 50$ (always going down in terms of btc when btc rose) to around 120$. This was a catapult to new highs, no?
Moneran's shouldn't forget the great Mintpal pump of 2014, which resulted in an ATH that wasn't broken for two years.
The important point though is that the price record was reached before trading began at Mintpal. Perhaps this time is different?
I
do think a crypto armageddon is coming, and I think 80% is an optimistic estimate (for a market cap loss for the entire sector). When the dust clears, only a few projects will remain. Of course we can only guess when it will happen, and to what degree it will affect XMR.
I don't think that this scenario has to happen (it could, of course) but it's just as likely that the market will keep growing for quite some time and a lot of useless or outdated cryptos will just silently fade away (like they already have been doing). If crypto just reaches a fraction of the importance the Crypto utopians predict than this market is still tiny. I think that a lot of the day traders here just view cryptocurrencies as a pump and dump vehicle for their personal short term gains and tend to miss the bigger picture, the fantastic revolution that cryptocurrencies are. (Not saying that you are part of that.)
Interesting is this pro con discussion in which the yale prof (who takes the con side) says that the term "bubble" is often misunderstood.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/3000651983