How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"
I had that happen...right around the time of the market top in 2013.
It is a bearish indicator. It means that the wave of FOMO has reached the masses. The only difference at that point is how many decide to buy and how much, but the important fact is that there are really no more big wave of people to reach (at least not ones with money). When Mayweather and Paris Hilton are promoting ICOs, when it is being covered on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. every day, who is left? Price gains are certainly still possible, but the risks have become a lot more symmetric.
There is one more wave to reach and that is conservative institutionsl money that will allocate to crypto as an asset class given ETFs (or similar vehicles) but not before. That's potentially a big wave ($1 T or more). It may or may not happen this cycle.
Spot on, I think.
Barring a real outlier event, this is probably the penultimate wave before the true recognition.
On that basis, expect a decline to gradually build momentum until it erases 80% on average. The winners will be down 60%, the losers will be down 95% or more. Timescale between 1 and 3 years before the final wave up starts. All based on conjecture and previous fractal patterns.