Post
Topic
Board Project Development
Re: Bitcoin and Deep Neural Networks, Introducing Evolution One.
by
ferumflex
on 19/09/2017, 12:48:53 UTC
Have few questions:
You said that you have accuracy of 96%, this is on training or validation data?

Do you analyze only market data or you also parse news?


I think technical analysis does not work. You probably should combine it with some kind of fundamental analysis.


I'm interested into why you don't think technical analysis works as our findings have been quite different.

Bitcoin seems to follow a very set pattern of supply and demand, more then other assets. This is why we have seen news come out and even though the price drops, it does not go into free fall like it used to(remember silk road closure). If you study the order book during news events, and then also when it is just normal trading, you can see examples of this. Now that the market is more evolved and more money is at play, news does not affect the market nearly as much as it did in the past.

These kinds of bots also do not perform as per say traditional technical analysis such as with MACD, ATR, RSI etc. They more often employ much more advanced statistics such as GARCH volatility models, random walk theory, Alpha and Beta values, etc.

This still does not mean news should not be looked at. One other thing we have noticed in our research is the bitcoin market is extremely emotional. People sell on news that in reality does not matter much, and contently churn the market. We are still figuring out the exact thing to look at and are running tests on a tweets/google searches per day to trigger a news event. The cool thing about the Neural Network is you can feed just about anything through it and it will process it into usable data.

Also that statistic is based on training data so far. It is not trading live yet as the network is currently being trained.

Because technical analysis can not predict news about prohibition of the ICO in China.

Another question. If your model is so good. Why do not you trade by yourself and take profit? Why do you need ICO?
You can invest your money and get really rich.