I guess it is safe to say that none of us know. But in danger of missing a Black Swan go by I would rather sacrifice some future "profit" or holdings of BTC by trying to buy in later at lower prices, with just holding at what I see to be a great price - now. But I can say, it is wise to have capital available to buy more in later should that occur. But it sounds like you are trying to rationalize the greatest social experiment in the history of our civilization. Think about that.
Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...
Don't try to time a Black Swan.
Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...
Don't try to time a Black Swan.
People should really try to comprehend this. The small value you are likely to gain by waiting (which is relatively probable) does not beat the enormous gain you lose by being out when the price suddenly spikes (even though this is a far less likely event to happen in the time-frame you are out of BTC). The opportunity cost of choosing fiat over BTC short term can be extremely high.
Exactly. If you get super lucky and call it right you might get another 20% or so, but if you call it wrong you are holding ZERO and buying in at much higher levels.
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In other words, you see nothing wrong with Pascal's Wager?
I think you have to add another column...."Wrong God Exists" there to be more accurate.
Isn't there an infinite chance that the god he could "believe in" is the wrong one?
In that case believing in no god is probably better than believing in the wrong one.