Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
What if it drops $1000 in a day? - oh but wait, it can't!, and though I really do get what crumbcake was getting at invoking Pascal's Wager it is a fact only one side has a limit to its movement in a day.
But the price doesn't have to fall $1000 in a day. The price can half as often as it can double. Here's a neat puzzle for you:
1. You're given a sealed envelope, and are told (truthfully) that it contains $100.
2. The man who gave you the envelope presents two other, identical looking envelopes. He informs you that one of the envelopes contains exactly $50 (half of the money you hold), and the other $200 (double the money you hold).
3 He offers you a chance to swap your envelope for one of the two presented envelopes.
4. Seems like it's in your best interest to swap, since if you choose badly (the $50 envelope), you only lose $50 (you had $100 before the swap). If you choose well (the $200 envelope), you win $100. Odds of you choosing the $200 envelope are 50/50, while you could win double of what you could lose.
See the problem? Or did i misinterpret what you were trying to say?
Your complicating something quite simple by talking in analogies, which in this case is really missing the point.
Do you believe in BTC? If not then don't partake. Is it an investment? Then find your entry point. Really quite simple.
As I said above, I believe in what it means and what it stands for. Nothing complicated, no TA needed, just looking at the world and what bankers are doing to it is enough for me to make my "donation" to a better cause. We will be in this together anyway.
It's about sharing