Im going with the choice of two to three million. Because i have seen a lot of horror stories from various people with various reasons. Such as house burning, devices malfunctioning, storages being lost, wrong copying of private keys, forgetting, and more. The list really goes on. But i think this is just when bitcoin is cheap. Because I don’t think people today would be as careless as people back then with bitcoins. Considering it’s current price today on the market. Although there are people who still tend to be clumsy, I don’t think the numbers are still as huge as the numbers back then.