Yes, trading is educated guessing, meaning you've educated yourself about certain facets of market behavior and are prepared to act when the conditions are met.
For example, you've noticed that over two years' analysis of equities' price behavior following important news reports that whenever a heavily shorted stock breaks through a major previous resistance level it runs another 2% or more 95% of the time. You decide to place standing buy stops above the last major swing high of every liquid stock that has a short interest greater than 20%. That is an educated guess that will likely produce consistent profits for you when combined with prudent risk management principles.