Awesome call, that was.  Lately I am more focussed on the (easier, on assumptions) longer-term estimation task:

Monero has consistently repriced higher with each positive development, and the number and scope of bullish developments in the pipe is increasing, not decreasing, as the price, hash and community all rise in tandem.  It's the foothills of the exponential phase of adoption here.  After, comes the super-exponential expansion phase, as n log n network effect  kicks in, composed with a FOMO function.  Eventually, the market saturates at a given development level, FOMO dies, and price pulls back, but until XMR denominates at least 10% of the 22 trillion  USD dark global GDP and at least 1% of the 80 trillion light GDP (for PQ = 3 tUSD) the cycle keeps repeating in a larger S-curve on a scale of ca. 10 years.  If the velocity is an historically typical 5, the market cap of XMR should top out in the neighborhood of 600 bn USD, and 1 XMR should be worth about 30k USD2012.

(The reason why BTC is over 4k now is not the size of the BTC economy, but the outsized reserve demand, which implies a much lower velocity of money.)

In the longer run (multiple decades) XMR value should grow with the global economy, so holding it will be like holding the DJ Global Index, in terms of future expectation at any given moment, which should be modulated by some XMR-specific risk factor.