As for Bitcoin, you don't have inside knowledge as to the probability of future success of Bitcoin. In fact, no one does. What we have at the moment is market prices: where the risk appetite is satisfied by the Bitcoin supply. At any point in time, the market's opinion is that over the long term, the expected value of Bitocin will be the same + the time value of money (the interest rate). If lots of people think it will go up, the prices will rise accordingly. If lots of people think it will drop, prices will fall. Sometimes they may have good reasons to do so which don't conflict with your own (maybe they are optimizing a larger portfolio and are selling to reduce the correlation between their holdings; maybe they are in urgent need of cash) but often they will sell because their beliefs about the future value of bitcoin are directly opposed to yours.