Neither of which do anything to further the goal of onboarding the world. Whether or not we have Segwit or Lightning, 1MB blocks will require 30 years to get a single transaction to each person on earth. The only way to improve this is with larger blocks.
This is one blockchain, not the bloody Noah's ark. The limits of on-chain scalability are evident even to the likes of me...
So you're happy with a limit of getting 2% of the population onto LN per year, with no bandwidth left for any other other transactions (like, maybe, to rescind a cheating LN transaction by your channel counterparty trying to steal your funds)?
Fine. In the boxes next to your name, I'll check the 1MB4EVAH column.
I'll believe a hard fork is absolutely necessary when the entire development community--including the actual developers--concedes that it's necessary. Not because of block politics.