Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?
Not at all. Trading with bitcoin requires you to follow the price flow, current events that might change the price and also a little luck.
Yep, it is more than just educated guess. It takes time, effort and a really good timing to gain such profits on trading. It's dangerous to proceed in trading with little to no idea at all of what's happening. If you do look closely at the graphs and the market you'll see major players, bullish and others. It might help in analyzing to determine if your investment can yield big results.
When you trade, you really need to be knowledgeable enough so you can really gain big because you don't have the ideas or ways in gaining more money in trading, you might lose the chance of having a lot of money in exchange of the trading you did. That's why you also need to be careful when you trade, make sure that you will gain when you trade. Analyze everything before you trade so you will always gain and though it is unpredictable, there are really good timing that it is good to trade.