I don't really think there is anything like guessing in trading...well because to trade.. you follow the news, market, price of bitcoins , recent events , and then only you make a deal.

Trading is dependent on luck but it itself is not something based soley on it... Because if you are working towards... Being up to date with news and selling only if the price reaches the top I don't think there is anything like guessing.

Because most people who makes profit from trading are the ones who don't guess but follow the market in a strict manner because if you do hold a good amount then guessing itself is like putting your possession to stake and that only lower stake holders generally do..