Luckybit,
2) What's your take on the incredibly stable bitcoin token, an utterly worthless video game token showing incredible strength and price stability at well above $120. From an econ point of view it's not possible for this length of time so maybe you can add some new perspective. I firmly believe the natural forces exacerbated after a few weeks and it is now being propped up, but for what purpose, by artificial means....but who and for what purpose, again?
Bitcoin isn't a community token, it isn't merge mined, it's a cryptocurrency which is a commodity more like gold. It has intrinsic value based on it's scarcity and the difficulty and expense of obtaining it. Devcoin is just a community token no different than if we created coupons and called them shares and gave them out so people can exchange those coupons for Bitcoins. The coupons would be coupons not Bitcoins. The value would be in the Bitcoins themselves which function as the gold standard to back the coupons. In the case of Devcoins the value is in the Bitcoins that people can trade Devcoins for. Devcoins themselves are merely community tokens and are not scarce because they don't have to be worth anything to be used to prove you did a job any more than a time card has to be worth anything more than to prove you showed up on time. Devcoins are functioning like time cards for Bitcoins. Devcoins can help establish who did what job and its a lot easier to reward in Devcoins but I see no intrinsic technological innovation or value in Devcoins to make it last nor is it scarce enough to have any psychologically instrinsic value to a smart investor. Negotiable instruments or fiat currency had value in that it was lighter and easier to carry than gold but I don't see what niche or role Devcoin has that could not be done by PPcoin or Litecoin If you'd like to go buy millions of Devcoins go and for now it will be an okay investment but the moment Devcoin is globalized and the majority of writers are in third world countries the value will crash or something has to change, I do not see how it's a sustainable model mathematically.
3) These tokens are known about by maybe 1% of the population, and I mean, known as in knowledge not some quick thing they heard on channel 12 news. So it's only a matter of time before awareness explodes and goes logarithmic and depending the number of tokens on the market at the time most if not all coins can stand to gain massive price appreciation, especially one such as devcoin which has a large following. What's your take on this theory of mine and the possibility of it actually happening in my timeframe of 6-18 months or so?
Devcoin is not designed to be scarce. It will never become like gold because it doesn't have the same design. Anyone can get Devcoins for cheap and while there might be occasional volatility it's always going to be cheap because it will never be scarce. Devcoin isn't really a coin. Let me give an example, lets say I took decks of cards with arbitrary random numbers on them and I called them "shares" and passed them out to anyone who did X amount of work and who typed Y amount of words. Let's say the cards are made by a card company that for sake of argument mined the cards into existence using technology from a completely different company that makes very rare limited edition baseball cards but agreed to let them use the facility to make the arbitrary cards and then gave us unlimited amounts to pass out. The point here is that with Devcoin the worker is acting as the miner mining by earning shares. The more workers who write, the less profitable it becomes to write, the less workers will want to write. This is a flaw in the design of Devcoins because while it was designed to produce efficiency it neglects the fact that in a global economy there will be people willing to write nearly for free so once critical mass is reached there will be hundreds of thousands or perhaps millions of third world writers who will write for $5 a share, so what of those expecting $50 or $500 a share? It simple does not scale. The number of Devcoins being generated are just arbitrary numbers, it's only the worth of the shares that matter to the writer just as miners care about how profitable mining is and not so much about securing the blockchain.
4) Tokens are different than money but I think from the physics and economics point, such as supply and demand, velocity of money, turn over rate, etc,. these tokens should behave closely to the same model as money since in essence they can be treated as fiat money at some point so then their price can appreciate based on the same theories which govern the current market value of any fiat currency. What's your take on that and perhaps a timeframe?
Bitcoin is a global commodity currency. You can use it as a store of value or as a currency to purchase large items but not so much for micropayments. Litecoin is better at micropayments, hence it's a bit less scarce and has faster transaction times. PPcoin is better as a store of value than Bitcoin because of Proof of Stake and the differences in managing difficulty. Devcoins are tokens which represent a value in Bitcoin but which have no intrinsic value of their own. Bitcoin has an intrinsic value of it's own because people will buy or even invest in Bitcoin. I don't see many people thinking Devcoin is a good long term investment. Anyone who actually attempts to work out the math quickly finds out that with unlimited supply but limited demand, you're not going to see much of a price rise. Limited supply but unlimited demand like with gold or perhaps Bitcoin is a very different story.
To test this out, if you ask people here if they have enough Bitcoins most will say no.
Try asking people here if they have enough Devcoins and see what they say.