I started this topic about Game Theory and the correlation to the new crypto economic world. It is my firm belief BitCoin will NOT be a fad for any time in the near future in fact you saying it is a possibility kinda tells me you don't know nearly enough about it. But lets entertain that idea:
The rational meantioned in Game Theory is not the definition you are giving it.
Rationality is have a preference order that is complete and transitive. That is the definition of rationality in a game-theoretical sense.
In economics and game theory, it is sometimes assumed that agents have perfect rationality: that is, they always act in a way that maximizes their utility, and are capable of arbitrarily complex deductions towards that end. -
So anyway. Im still learning a lot about game theory. I don't have perfect rationality but I would call the thought of calling BitCoin a fad happening in my lifetime irrational.
http://gametheory101.com/courses/game-theory-101/rationality/I found and shared a link a couple of days ago:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2276184.msg23084247#msg23084247Incidentally, the most recent Nobel Prize for economics was awarded to a guy who has been trying to tell people for 40 years that the financial markets keep getting people caught out simply because people are completely incapable of perfect rationality. Even banks during the mortgage crisis 8-10 years ago failed to act rationally, realising they were getting into worse debt by accepting bad deals. Logically, they could only head down into disaster but went down that path anyway until it was simply too big to hide.
I've seen it also in crypto: Mt Gox, other exchanges, even dogetipbot (
https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). At the first signs of trouble, they just seem to dig deeper and deeper holes until they go completely bust.
Rational models are deeply flawed for as long as they are not applied to perfect computers =)
P.S. Bitcoin is not a fad and is no longer in danger of becoming one, I agree. I know more and more people who buy it in a fad-like frenzy but people do that with gold too, and gold's not a fad.