How can I easily calculate how far we are to our expected % progress in finding a block? Is it based on one of the stats on CKpool.org/pool?
It's the DIFF value. That is an estimate to the average amount of hashing it takes to find a block at current difficulty. I think we are 72+ right now... but it is still all dependant on luck. The pool could find one today, or at 120 DIFF...