Thank you for the PDF, but this is for me mathematically too high
For example:
The round duration is 1:00:00 and the CDF is 50%, i have 500 share soon. When i disconnect from the pool, and the pool work continue, then my shares value would every time less.
with 30% CDF (10k total shares) i earn (with simple method) 0,00125BTC. But we dont have now a block. The pool work continue for half hour. Then the CDF is 45% and the total shares is 15k, then my shares value is now only 0.000833. While the duration would more and more, my shares would every time less.
Sorry for my bad English, its possible that i write wrong many thing, i write here with numbers:

#1
Block Duration: 1:00:00
CDF: 30%
Total Shares: 10'000'000
My shares: 500
My estimated reward: 0.00125BTC

#2
I disconnect at this time with 500 shares.

#3
Block Duration: 1:30:00
CDF: 45%
Total Shares: 15'000'000
My shares: 500
My estimated reward: 0.000833BTC

#4
Block Duration: 2:00:00
CDF: 55%
Total Shares: 20'000'000
My shares: 500
My estimated reward: 0.000625BTC

#5
Block found! 25BTC
Block Duration was: 2:30:00
Total Shares was: 25'000'000
My Shares was: 500
My reward is: 0.0005BTC

Why is that method bad? I become the reward what i worked for the block^^

And what its whit these block?
18284    2013-05-30 09:23:24    5:14:27    48529423    764    0.00000027    none    238658    25.41754350    confirmed
I has
         764
-----------------
     48529423
split worked for the block, and im quasi not rewarded    though that i have the whole block duration worked?