Let's see if the price goes well beyond that

Before the last halving the price which had been rising for nearly half a year prior the halving crashed a few weeks before the actual event. If history is set to repeat itself, we might expect a major correction just before the hard fork provided the recent surge is actually due to it. I haven't been following the recent trends (and rumors), but I'm not sure if the hard fork is really going to happen. I heard some conspirators behind the NY conspiracy had called back their signatures, so will it really happen? What are the odds?