Post
Topic
Board Mining
Re: Theoretical limits, given 14 days per difficulty and 50% increases in difficulty
by
bcpokey
on 17/06/2011, 18:43:44 UTC
Please stop making these threads. There is a "beginners" that links to a thread that makes the exact same "analysis" pinned to the top of this forum.

First things first, 14 days difficulty requires ZERO increase in difficulty. Difficulty increase occurs when block rate occurs faster than predicted average should be. 50% difficulty increase requires ~7-9 days between difficulties.

Next, the fact is that these analysis make no sense because a static difficulty increase makes 0 sense. Retargets have been at 50% for... 1 difficulty change. Before that it was a 25% retarget. Before that 65-75%, before that 40% before that 30ish%.
Not to mention a static PERCENTAGE increase means an exponential numerical increase (of difficulty/hashing power). This is completely unfeasible unless price continues to rise at a similar rate.

In fact, in 2 difficulties it is likely your analysis will fall through like a brick on a wet paper napkin. Next difficulty is set to bump over 1million difficulty, but price has just fallen through the floor to around $13 (probably end at $10 or so). This makes mining a complete flip of the $30 / coin 500k difficulty point at which all the machines that are coming online now to bump the hash rate up were bought. Some people will try to stick it out because they sunk their money in so foolishly, many people will run up a massive sell-off to try to recoup the losses they suddenly find themselves taking.

Anyway, that's all short term, long term no one knows, which is why I don't like these threads. The future is not a line on a chart.