All of these analyses don't take into account the price of bitcoins, which is pretty much impossible to predict.
This is true, but the bulk of people in this forum are in here for the long haul, I believe. All the GPU's pointed at the network aren't going anywhere until mining starts to suck (6 difficulties from now).
Interesting analysis. Can't say that I would agree with your premises, though.
Which ones? Why not?
models suck if the assumptions are not valid!
in your case, these are the issues I see after a quick glance:
-no model for fluctuation of BTC prices
-assume exponential growth of total network hashing power for the next 40 increases
-difficulty increase is not based on a model for expected hashing power but rather on a static +50% increase
-no link between price of BTC and difficulty
-where is the time period? 39 difficulty increases is more than a year's worth of mining...
As long as BTC are over $1USD, I would say my predictions are valid.
I do indeed assume exponential growth. WHy wouldn't I, given that it has been exponential recently, and more and more media attention is bringing in new miners?
Yes, the static 50% is an assumption (Based on exponential growth, which isn't guaranteed, but it is part of my model).
See point #1 above.
Time period is based on now until the 210,000th block, at which point 50 BTC reward becomes 25, and people drop like flies.