My sympathies. Indeed compared to investing in bitcoins, sdice has been a disaster the past months. Basically totally collapsing from around 0.0070 to the current 0.0020, losing 70% of it's btc value. It's rightful to feel bad about that.
I agree with you that they are undervalued. It's very simple, it returns an average 10% dividend, but $ earnings and $ value have been tenfolding in only 1 year. This means this extremely fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 10. That is ridiculous. Sure there is a lot of legal uncertainty but still. Normally such fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 50 (dividend 2%).
Well here's the thing, past 30 day volume (all PTs included) is 372,209 shares, or about 500-1k BTC. That's another way of saying nothing (about 0.1% of total corp mkt cap or thereabouts). So therefore:
A. Current price is reflective of not much with a view to nothing at all. The people holding it obviously aren't selling, the book hasn't much moved etc. Seems like a few speculators working on very little capital have been working themselves into a tizzy, going into some sort of downward spiral the past month or so. This trend can easily reverse in about five minutes, which leads us to:
B. Lay off all the analytical talk and buy some shares.
Obviously B may not be feasible for very practical reasons, but I do think all the excitement over what looks more like market inefficiency/immaturity that any sort of actual changes is perhaps a little over the top. S.DICE is not significantly different from whatever it was back in January, when it was trading at 3x current share prices, the dooglus reports still show it at 5x% of all network transactions, what exactly is the problem?
I doesn't take into account the fact of SD's competition. It's simply being out out competed. There are more and more sites popping up with better features, lower house odds and more invested developers
None of this matters, as has been discussed constantly since about August, as has been proven constantly since August. Anyone can make a website in about five minutes, that's not a business. S.DICE has the proven ability to pay 10s of ks of BTC to winners. No competitor has this. End of story, really.
SD is having it's cake cut slice by slice while it waits to be out performed by all these alternative sites. It will only survive a year if it acts now whilst it still is largely in the bitcoin community public eye. Otherwise this user base will slowly dwindle and diversify into all the other sites leaving SD a husk of a once potential filled 'business'.
By this sort of reasoning Coca Cola would not exist today. You have to at some point appreciate that the "developers matter", "a website is a business", "stuff has to happen!!!" ADD approach to life and everything else is specific to a very narrow group of people (young, mostly male, mostly poor, mostly urban etc) which doesn't translate into much social traction or broader relevance (if it did they'd have more sex and chill the fuck out). It's, in other words, a market nobody wants to sell to (this is why they mostly buy computer games rather than luxury cruises, sky and scooba gear, exotic vacations and other high value, high turnover pastimes).