What do you guys think separates the crypto situation now from bubbles like the dotcom bubble back in 2000? I find there are a lot of similarities, and it worries me. The expansion of the crypto markets with new altcoins and ICO's coming every day, it seems as if sooner or later it's going to have to stop. What gives all these coins their value? What kind of methods do people here use to evaluate future cashflows or earnings? Almost every time I ask someone that on this forum they don't have any answer what so ever. Maybe just a "well it's going to go up because more people want in so that they can earn money too". That's 100% the definition of a ponzi scheme, which causes me to think we are operating in a ponzi financed economy (ref. Hymin Minsky's crisis model).
The dotcom bubble burst because people were expecting enormous future profits, which wasn't backed up at all by the organic growth in the industry. How should we determine what is organic growth in the crypto economy? It's really hard to say, as the technology is so young that companies aren't really making money yet. So what kind of earnings are you guys investing in? Is it simply that you expect the asset to increase in price due to higher demand, or are you betting on cashflows from the use of it? In bitcoin's case I guess there won't be too much cashflow from use, but there are many altcoins that try to do this. I'm just thinking loud here, so I'd very much like to hear your thoughts as well.
Nice thread. It has been quite a while to see a good thread in Economics section.
In my views, it is wrong to compare Crypto market with the Ponzi structure. Though in both Cryptos and Ponzi ladder, new buyers enter with a prospect of earning future profits but still Cryptos have utility which is entirely absent in latter case.
On the other hand, if you consider speculation part of Crypto market, so this occur in each and every asset. Now come to Real Estate, not everyone buy to build mansion. Some do trading, buy low and sell high. Similarly in case of cryptocurrencies, speculation do happens but it is integral part of asset trading and shouldn't be consider big threat if an asset is backed by some utility.