No, actually that's wrong. The main factor in determining the pricing of a commodity (such as oil/gold), is DEMAND, NOT difficulty to mine (though difficulty to mine may establish a pricing floor for the commodity, as anything below the floor will just make mining unprofitable and mining would cease). Platinum is 40 times more scarce than gold and as a result 40 times harder to mine, but its price is just slightly more than gold. Why? Because it doesn't have 40X DEMAND.
At the current difficulty, the pricing floor for bitcoin is around $2-$3 (cover electricity and a tiny profit) with a paid off rig.
and let's not forget there are tons of bored people with idle GPU that would mine just for fun, even with negative profit.
Here's the way I see things. What happens when it becomes more difficult to mine stuff in the physical world? What happens when oil is harder to find? The price goes up.
The difficulty just went up a lot. The price was around $20 for a while. Now since it's harder to mine, I value my coins at a higher rate than $20 per coin. I wouldn't sell a coin for less than $25 now. But that's just me. It'll take an entire community of like minded people to make that happen. Either way, if bitcoins fall low, I'm going to buy them at their low price. No matter what, I know I'm winning. Prices went low? Fine. I'll buy some coins before they go back up. Prices set new record high? Good. That's a very potential future value for them that I can base some estimates on. If it goes up too high and I know it's too high, I might sell some coins before the speculation bubble bursts and buy again after. Don't worry, guys. Just play it smart. Don't take too much risk but don't be too cautious either and you'll make a few bucks. Don't worry about people panicking or hoarding. You can take advantage of both situations.
I'm not disagreeing with this. That's why I said "But that's just me. It'll take an entire community of like minded people to make that happen."