fun with statistics.


the chance of back to back cdfs of .9996

are about 1 of 4,000,000  but that did not happen here.

once upon  a time  years ago  a pool did back to back .999 cdf  and 6 of 10  cdfs above  .92   and the 4 other ones  were  

all over .65  I stopped mining there.

I will come back here.  When my 3 s-9s come next month.

my point  is that  the 6k price a coin makes  the luck more painful.

and  the chance of back to back cdf of .9996  is

4/10000 x 4/10000 = 6,250,000   but  that did not happen here.

the math for this  is much more under 10,000 to 1


the cdf for these 5 = 0.9868

 53.387%  0.414
   7.818%  0.075
875.193%   1.000   this is not a cdf of 1.000  it is more like 0.9996
  71.017% 0.508
112.683% 0.676


so the bottom 112.683%  0.676   drops out

replaced by   810+%  .999 cdf

which  will bring our 5 block  worse then .99  far under  1,000,000  to one

every 500 blocks  we should have a terrible 5 block streak.

but at 6000 x 13 = 78,000 a block  it is painful


And to any and all statistical professor's 

the math  is this.

 if you start right after the devil block here.

the chance of back to back  cdf's of .9996  is 6,250,000 to 1

that is correct and I will stand by it.

I used 2000 to 1  x 2000 to 1  = 4,000,000  because .  we are not a cdf of 1.000   we are .9995000000001 or higher

and rounded up to  1.000

My emotion is simple  enough for me.  we are nowhere near the 4,000,000 or 6,250,000 to one.

the last 5 blocks once this is over will have us over a cdf of .99  not a big deal

I am more concerned about the August then September and now October.