@10,000 chips per group buy that = a potential 76 group buys!!!
Jspielberg was the forum member that confirmed this...
I'd assume about 200-400k are from group buys and another 150k from companies that plan to sell assembled units with a 200% profit margin.
Isn't it irrelevant though? We know that there are 760k chips being made and added to the network around August, that's all that matters when making projections. What is much more of an issue is whether BFL ships and to what ends; additionally if there are any other manufacturers/groups working in the background that add a lot of units.
I tried calculating ROI with 100 and 200m difficulty, that's where I expect it to be around October; but then it's all worthless anyway, it's pretty much impossible to project ROI since the price is going up and down all the time and the smallest news leave a huge impact. You can make estimates of difficulty but by the time KnCMiner ships the BTC price could be anywhere between $.1 and $600, and this is true all the same after you receive the miner, but it has an even worse effect; if BTC crashes then, you have no possibility of getting your money back.
Dude, there's also ASICminer for sure, potentially Bitfury as well.
BTC price I see floating between $100 and 100. Until they break through another psychologically important milestone. Perhaps --> ASICs --> more confidence investing in the currency because of a more secure and efficient network --> more vendors and merchants excepting the money transfer --> consumer confidence/interest --> etc.