As aminorex astutely pointed out, the market won't turn until the bulls capitulate. In the past, the appearance of trolls and FUD was a good indicator of the tides changing, but such market patterns tend to collapse as soon as they're recognized. KeyJockey's post indicates a level of short-term uncertainty that leads me to believe we're about to see the next move up. But then again, I thought that was going to happen three weeks ago and I was wrong.
Welp, if it was easy to predict the market we'd all be millionaires. The line between trading and gambling is almost nonexistent.
I agree and disagree with you at the same time: while you cannot guarantee a rise in price, it is possible to make a very educated guess and be right like 80%-90% of the time (especially when holding for a long time).