Ultimatly what this boils down to is trying to find:
What affects the price = Supply and Demand
What affects Supply = Miners
What affects Demand = Speculators
What affects Miners = Running costs
What affects Speculators = ....
If you can find these answers you will have a better idea of where price is heading.
Didn't mention a single thing about the bitcoin economy and it's use as a currency which is why everyone's dumping when you boil it down.
It got the media attention and all the tech savy people thought they could get rich quickly and out smart everyone but jumping in and just got turned into a giant pump and dump.
Yes, bitcoins are missing an essential part of demand, that is its purpose or use. I have said before that the only value it offers is pure speculation at the moment (i think everyone realises this), bar just a handfull of sites accepting it as payment. When you consider the amount of supply being generated and the lack of demand I think we can support an arguement for price continuing to decline. But I dont believe it will be the end of it. It may take price to reach $5 before strong demand comes in, when it does it can perpetuate itself and develope into more demand, plus the fact of a declining price pushing miners 'out of business' or lack of new miners taking part or miners simply holding onto their bitcoins. This will reduce supply.
Much more ups and downs to come I think. But a turnaround price would be good to know so you can invest at the right time.