Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?
Not at all. Trading with bitcoin requires you to follow the price flow, current events that might change the price and also a little luck.
Agree in that mate. Trading is not purely guessing without valid basis. Guessing is not the ideal strategy in trading because you will end up losing your investment. Trading is a matter of collecting the daily status of the bitcoin. Afterwhich, these data will be your basis or indicator if it is the right time to trade. Thus, trading is a matter if predicting based on the result of your analysis.