Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?
Not at all. Trading with bitcoin requires you to follow the price flow, current events that might change the price and also a little luck.
When I had my first trading experience I decided to choose it through an advice. I have really no idea yet what to buy for trading. I don't wanna buy anything also with no referal or advice from the experts. I'm still learning to do it. So probably its educated guessing sometimes but its more on luck also. Though it was properly research but still no assurance to get a higher return. Until now I'm still holding it and waiting for my bid price to sell for profit.