Ultimatly what this boils down to is trying to find:
What affects the price = Supply and Demand
What affects Supply = Miners
What affects Demand = Speculators
What affects Miners = Running costs
What affects Speculators = ....
If you can find these answers you will have a better idea of where price is heading.
What affects speculators? Risk of loss. If a speculator loses too much they go bust.
Anyways, back to the OT. I think we need to think long term. BTC is going to be the future currency of the world. Right now the economy is still getting started. Eventually everything will be traded in btc.