Re: [Ann] US based Avalon ASIC chips and assembly: 2,564 remaining

I too had a lot of concerns about joining this (or any) group buy. I was amazed that so many people sent BTC, but I was the first person to ask if Steamboat could verify that he had really purchased the initial batch of chips (he was reselling half of it) - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=192916.msg2055009#msg2055009

I saw your verification and decided that was enough for me (you you could have been working together, I only bought 32 chips in batch 1, I can still feed my family if they go missing).

Since then I've been totally convinced steamboat is legit, I think he is thinking way too much about the tiny details to not go through with this. I also agree that he has a lot more to gain by going through with this than scamming.

This is just the start, BFL seem to be releasing chips. These Avalon chips are fairly primitive ASICs, there will be Avalon II perhaps in something 25nm, perhaps offering 200MH/s on a AA battery, who knows. I think this is the start of an industry, these boards will be obsolete in a year but the experience and reputations gained producing them will be very valuable.

at current prices in order for avalons to be obsolete, IE cost more to operate than they would produce, network hashrate would need to be 200x of todays value(24,000 thash), 100x after the next reward halfing (12,000 thash)

rather unlikely in the near future

You can only look at operating costs vs production if the unit is free. Add in costs for the unit itself and it changes the equation. You have to make enough profit not only to cover operating costs, but also initial capital.