Assuming the most optimistic scenario, BTC replaces Fedwire 100%.
Over the past 4 months, BTC's blockchain volume has been roughly $1 billion dollars per day. In 2016 Fedwire sent approximately $2 trillion per day. This is an astonishingly large amount of cash and more than notes of USD notes in circulation and really makes me wonder what is going on with the banks. In order for BTC to match this volume of Fedwire transactions, its price would need to be 2000 times higher than it currently is or roughly $12,000,000.
I really don't know if this is even plausible, but an interesting hypothetical. This would make Satoshi, with his 1,000,000 BTC stash, worth $12 trillion. No wonder he's gone silent.
I suppose even just a fraction of this, like 1%, could be considered a major success, or $120,000 BTC. Could this be what people are starting to price in since there is still so much potential?
Any thoughts, critiques or other ways to value BTC are appreciated.
Total market capital of bitcoin is somewhat around 101,931,068,218 And at the same time fedwire is moving 2 trillion dollars per day. From the stats alone we see that total market capital of bitcoin is reasonable far away from what fedwire is handling on daily basis. With that said it is not entirely impossible for bitcoin to compete with fedwire within few years. Given that growth rate of bitcoin adoption is remaining same or more. More importantly other govt or at least if federal reserve finds out that bitcoin is posing serious threat to their business then situation could get bad sooner than later. However fedwire has nothing to fear about bitcoin at this stage though.
The value of bitcoin which needs to increase to match up with current fedwire is doing on daily basis is huge but bitcoin is known to do wonder all along. One interesting point though by the time bitcoin is near to the 2 trillion per day, how much do you think fedwire will be handling?