FUEL for EP team members are locked for 6 months after the ICO end, it's in the whitepaper so you got it wrong there.
I missed that in fact in the whitepaper. So that takes 50 Million FUEL out of the equation. But does this also apply to the 100 million "incentive" tokens?
Tokens are sold on Etherdelta by people who purchased in the sale, nothing anyone can do about that.
Traders are going to trade and people trying to get in cheaper will try to make some low sell orders to incite others to sell cheap so they can scoop them.
I hope for all investors that you're right about your thesis.