Assuming the most optimistic scenario, BTC replaces Fedwire 100%.
Over the past 4 months, BTC's blockchain volume has been roughly $1 billion dollars per day. In 2016 Fedwire sent approximately $2 trillion per day. This is an astonishingly large amount of cash and more than notes of USD notes in circulation and really makes me wonder what is going on with the banks. In order for BTC to match this volume of Fedwire transactions, its price would need to be 2000 times higher than it currently is or roughly $12,000,000.
I really don't know if this is even plausible, but an interesting hypothetical. This would make Satoshi, with his 1,000,000 BTC stash, worth $12 trillion. No wonder he's gone silent.
I suppose even just a fraction of this, like 1%, could be considered a major success, or $120,000 BTC. Could this be what people are starting to price in since there is still so much potential?
Any thoughts, critiques or other ways to value BTC are appreciated.
How are you computing volume of transactions ($ per day) to the price of Bitcoin (in $). You are missing an important variable - the velocity of money, or how fast it circulates. You could have 1$ transferred between a million people in a single day, resulting in money circulation of $1 million. This is different from 1 bitcoin, valued at $ 1 million, changing hands.