Can not get it who will forecast, AI, experts or " collective mind"? How one can be sure that its not pre-written?
There many use cases for prediction markets. We expect the majority of our users to be individuals who are inclined to get rewarded for their efforts in correctly predicting the outcomes. After all, monetary reward is very appealing motivator for people to do any kind of labor. As a result, people will seek to acquire relevant knowledge required for predicting the correct outcome of an event thus resulting in a vast pool of information about certain event/thing. Crowds are wise only if they harbour a sufficient diversity of opinion (Surowiecki, 2005).