Post
Topic
Board Mining
Re: Theoretical limits, given 14 days per difficulty and 50% increases in difficulty
by
[Coins!]
on 18/06/2011, 18:23:34 UTC
A simple over/under straight bet.  Based on your calculations, at the calculated date.  If the difficulty is, say 98% or higher of your projected amount, you win.  If lower than 98% or your projected difficulty, I win.

Five bitcoins is the wager.


Well as you can see here I do not have 5.0 bitcoins : p  (That is the address in my signature too, by the way).

I may only end up with 5 bitcoins just as the 2016th block is hashed in this current 877k difficulty round. Based on my calculations I'll only end up mining a grand total of 9 bit coins in the next 6 difficulties (55.8 days at the 9.3 days-per-difficulty at 50% increases from above).  So wagering more than half my projected wealth seems a bit too steep for me : (  15 days worth of hashing!

What projected date, though.  

Block explorer lists the next difficulty at 1200518.48071190, which is a 36% increase.   To be 50%, it would need to be 131k.  Obviously the lower the earlier difficulties, the less likely it is that my 50% calculations hold up by the 6th difficulty round~