To preddict the market, we have to pay attention to the more stable prices before and after Mt. Gox in 2013/2014.
For many years from 2009 to 2013 the price was about USD 8. Then comes Mt. Gox. After Mt. Gox the price corrected until it was USD 200-300, the lows in 2015. So the rather stable range was USD 300 to USD 460 at end March/May 2016. March was the time when the Japanese parliament started to debate regulating bitcoin and it was the best that can happen - for Japan to formally licensing bitcoin exchanges. So it was also about May 2016 that the market took off until the present level of USD 6000.
So the most likely reason for this exceptional rally should be the legalization of bitcoin by Japan. Probably many who have paid attentions to Japan could have predicted the outcome and started buying. If this is true, then prices would naturally correct - markets always correct.
So how do we predict the bottom line of this coming correction. We go back to what was the stable range before the rally - it was from USD 300 - 400. So this was the "psychological" price expectation from before and it is this range that we must pay attention to. This is all about human psychology - the market does have a memory of the most recent past. Say a x5 or a x10 should be a very high jump, i.e. USD 1500 - 3000.
Now people would like to belief that there are "many out there" waiting to buy bitcoins as it was "...the best money...etc". Then ask - why were they not buying throughout 2015 before the Japan's debate news? Why now? I don't know if 15 Nov plays a part. But common sense says :
"Don't buy now".
It may even be wise to lock in some "real" fiat money instead.
Another question that others should ask:
"Where does this USD 6000 quote come from?".
Is it really true that there is a "spot" market between BTC and USD. But how can trading exchanges give spot quotes when a bitcoin confirmation of 6 blocks may take hours? So we have to know how "spot" real is the USD 6000/BTC that we are given.
Also ask:
"If you want to sell your bitcoins now, would the orders get through with confirmation?"
"How long does the sell confirmation takes?"
"Are there real buyers at current prices?"
Thanks for all this research, honestly I'm going to try and sell my btc, here's hoping that there are buyers. For many years from 2009 to 2013 the price was about USD 8. Then comes Mt. Gox. After Mt. Gox the price corrected until it was USD 200-300, the lows in 2015. So the rather stable range was USD 300 to USD 460 at end March/May 2016. March was the time when the Japanese parliament started to debate regulating bitcoin and it was the best that can happen - for Japan to formally licensing bitcoin exchanges. So it was also about May 2016 that the market took off until the present level of USD 6000.
So the most likely reason for this exceptional rally should be the legalization of bitcoin by Japan. Probably many who have paid attentions to Japan could have predicted the outcome and started buying. If this is true, then prices would naturally correct - markets always correct.
So how do we predict the bottom line of this coming correction. We go back to what was the stable range before the rally - it was from USD 300 - 400. So this was the "psychological" price expectation from before and it is this range that we must pay attention to. This is all about human psychology - the market does have a memory of the most recent past. Say a x5 or a x10 should be a very high jump, i.e. USD 1500 - 3000.
Now people would like to belief that there are "many out there" waiting to buy bitcoins as it was "...the best money...etc". Then ask - why were they not buying throughout 2015 before the Japan's debate news? Why now? I don't know if 15 Nov plays a part. But common sense says :
"Don't buy now".
It may even be wise to lock in some "real" fiat money instead.
Another question that others should ask:
"Where does this USD 6000 quote come from?".
Is it really true that there is a "spot" market between BTC and USD. But how can trading exchanges give spot quotes when a bitcoin confirmation of 6 blocks may take hours? So we have to know how "spot" real is the USD 6000/BTC that we are given.
Also ask:
"If you want to sell your bitcoins now, would the orders get through with confirmation?"
"How long does the sell confirmation takes?"
"Are there real buyers at current prices?"
