Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
If you do a "cost analysis" in terms of purchase price vs revenue generated, then:
ASSUMPTIONS
- do not factor in electricity costs
- BTC exchange at today's rate of $120 USD/BTC
- network difficulty on average increases 10% every 2 weeks, thereby reducing revenue by about 10% every 2 weeks
GPU
- AMD 7970 at stock speeds provides 650 MH/s
- Cost $400 USD or 3.33 BTC
- Generates 0.0209 BTC/day at today's difficulty
- After one year of continuous mining total BTC generated = 2.74 BTC
- LOSS OF 0.60 BTC
USB Block Erupter
- 333 MH/s
- Cost 1.99 BTC
- Generates 0.0107 BTC/day at today's difficulty
- After one year of continuous mining total BTC generated = 1.40 BTC
- LOSS OF 0.59 BTC
BFL Jalapeno
- 5000 MH/s
- Cost $274 USD = 2.28 BTC
- Generates 0.1611 BTC/day at today's difficulty
- After one year of continuous mining total BTC generated = 21.1 BTC if you start mining today!
- If you receive your unit and start mining 6 months from now
- Generates 0.0454 BTC/day
- After one year from that point, total BTC generated = 5.945 BTC
AM-PT SHARE
- Currently about 2.5 BTC/share at BTC-TC
- Recently generated 0.038 BTC/week in dividends (this was the highest dividend ever)
- After one year of dividends at this rate = 1.98 BTC
- LOSS OF 0.52 BTC
In other words, if you purchase any of the above items in the hopes of "earning back" your cost, you won't (with exception of BFL units). Of course this does not include the fact that you can sell your 7970 GPU in the future (but a year from now how much would it be worth? maybe $100?). Others would say you cannot sell the USB Block Erupter after a year because it is a uni-tasker without any other purpose. The BFL units are reasonably priced. Problem is they are not shipping in bulk, so a delay in shipment leads to large loss in profit. Finally, you can sell your AM-PT share too, and it is very difficult to predict what the sell price would be at that time.
wrong a hd7790 cost 1btc generates 300MHs ASSUMPTIONS
- do not factor in electricity costs
- BTC exchange at today's rate of $120 USD/BTC
- network difficulty on average increases 10% every 2 weeks, thereby reducing revenue by about 10% every 2 weeks
GPU
- AMD 7970 at stock speeds provides 650 MH/s
- Cost $400 USD or 3.33 BTC
- Generates 0.0209 BTC/day at today's difficulty
- After one year of continuous mining total BTC generated = 2.74 BTC
- LOSS OF 0.60 BTC
USB Block Erupter
- 333 MH/s
- Cost 1.99 BTC
- Generates 0.0107 BTC/day at today's difficulty
- After one year of continuous mining total BTC generated = 1.40 BTC
- LOSS OF 0.59 BTC
BFL Jalapeno
- 5000 MH/s
- Cost $274 USD = 2.28 BTC
- Generates 0.1611 BTC/day at today's difficulty
- After one year of continuous mining total BTC generated = 21.1 BTC if you start mining today!
- If you receive your unit and start mining 6 months from now
- Generates 0.0454 BTC/day
- After one year from that point, total BTC generated = 5.945 BTC
AM-PT SHARE
- Currently about 2.5 BTC/share at BTC-TC
- Recently generated 0.038 BTC/week in dividends (this was the highest dividend ever)
- After one year of dividends at this rate = 1.98 BTC
- LOSS OF 0.52 BTC
In other words, if you purchase any of the above items in the hopes of "earning back" your cost, you won't (with exception of BFL units). Of course this does not include the fact that you can sell your 7970 GPU in the future (but a year from now how much would it be worth? maybe $100?). Others would say you cannot sell the USB Block Erupter after a year because it is a uni-tasker without any other purpose. The BFL units are reasonably priced. Problem is they are not shipping in bulk, so a delay in shipment leads to large loss in profit. Finally, you can sell your AM-PT share too, and it is very difficult to predict what the sell price would be at that time.
bfl jallys have sped delivery a lot over the last 10 days and if you order today and get one in 90 days as claimed your analysis is wrong.
frankly if you want to start in this game today there is no good item to buy.
What happens if you update your model for recent difficulty trends.
IE: Change it from 10% increases every 2 weeks, to 33.6% every two weeks. (The real rate of difficulty increases is over triple what you used, and is likely to only accelerate as other asic hw vendors start shipping gear in volume.)
Also, please remember that a share of AM represents equity in a mining and HW manufacturing company. Unlike HW, and other fixed mining assets, AM shares will not quickly depreciate in value. So at the end of the year, you'll likely be able to sell AM for at least what you paid for (or somewhere close). Good luck trying to sell any of that mining HW in a year for anything near the price you paid for it.
-helixone
Frankly sitting on the sidelines and watching the show may be better then any investment at all. I can give 5 bad points to every BTC investment today. Your point of big hash ramp up is true. we may go from 15 to 18 to 22 then 26 20% each jump up. This is very likely to happen .
If true and asicminer ramps right up with it then AM will be fine.
So on July 1 when the network is 220Th if AM is 66TH AM will be okay even if AM can't sell its usb sticks any more.
Or has dropped price to .5BTC for a stick and 8BTC for a Blade of course I am saying those numbers because they would be the correct price if BFL has finally turned the corner. Or some other developer uses a bunch of avalon chips to make a good machine at a good price. This summer will have lots of action.
One thing for sure gpus will end hashing for BTC in 2013.