I don't think there's any certainty about the rise in bitcoin prices, because the forecasts are sometimes right and sometimes not.
I myself predict the approximation of bitcoin from the activity around it, for example There is a fork or can be seen from bitcoin volume, If the amount increases, the price is expected to rise, and vice versa.
There really is no way to know when a pump or dump will happen but there are somehow some exceptions like having a good and bad news about bitcoin that will affect it. And currently the price increase could possibly be an affect of an event that will happen soon. Anyway, I too base my forecast by waiting for a settles in a pumping coin and sell it cause for me I know that it will dump in days to come which is sometimes right and sometimes wrong.