This current bearish trend isn't going to stop until the price falls to the point that the market regains its previously reasonable trading volume. Most of May was characterized by no-volume "stability", with the price only floating 110+ because of systematic large buys by major players coupled with bot action producing an illusion of trading volume during periods of no-volume. The roll to 135 was nothing like the roll from 110-165 in post-crash April, where volume was high, there was constant trading, and Gox still had a deep verification queue with millions in fiat being wired while almost nothing got withdrawn.
This fall will have a lot of bull traps with people feeling that lower lows are cheap coins.
BTC was absolutely not post-bubble "stable" 110+ amidst no trading volume after trading for the rest of its existence sub $50. It's just currently an incredibly manipulated market where anyone with a few mega can have a huge short-term influence that produces illusions for smaller positions and makes money for their own.
Great post. I'm beginning to come around to this way of thinking. Low volume has signaled a lack of enthusiasm, and we've lost a few easy ways to get new money into coin (Bitfloor, Dwolla, etc.) over a short period of time.
It's not just that. Low volume is an indication that the
actual Bitcoin economy isn't running. The only activity I see on the depth window are the last remaining trading bots. I mean, how is someone supposed to get a few bucks into MtGox to buy something on SilkRoad or wherever? The Bitcoin price went from being 99% speculation, to being 99.999% speculation. I'd love to know how SilkRoad sales have been impacted with the closure of LR, MtGox-Dwolla, etc... At this rate, it's a long long way down...