In an other topic I ask what would be the best strategy to profit from the bitcoin crash. A bitcoin crash, but it's at a all time high stupid?! So let me explain why I believe there is a number of reasons what will cause this crash. Also feel free to counter.
Bitcoin vs Fiat money
One of the things people keep telling each other is that bitcoin is so much better than Fiat money. Yet a huge amount of people base the value of bitcoin only of the value compared to Fiat money. This forum is full of messages of people cheering when bitcoin has reached a new all time high, in Fiat money numbers. Also people dream of getting rich and millionaire, again in Fiat money. This brings me to the next point, speculation.
Speculation
I believe that 99% of people that are joining the bitcoin train now, hope that the Fiat money they invest now will be more worth more in the future. The look at the chart and see it go's up and up. There are just a fixed number of bitcoin, so they will be increase in worth right? No, the current value expressed in Fiat money is because it's a classic bubble. While people keep buying the price will rise, until they start to panic. Lot's of noobs are buying bitcoin right now and guess who are driven by emotion when it go's down? The noobs again, they will panic first.
Bitcoin is the most destructive force on the planet
Wait whut? Yes I am very sure about this one. Never in history there has be anything that just wasted such an amount of energy and hardware. Just think of the millions of graphic cards that were not used to play a video game or design a 3d building for an architect, no just burned for bitcoin. So much electric energy that is just vaporized in heat that was just waste. And the current network use a ton of energy for just one transaction. We are all about environment and climate, but yet we don't seem to realize this enormous waste.
Unstable value
As long as the value is not even near stable it's not a alternative to Fiat money. Why would you buy anything with it as you believe it could be worth double the money next month? Same for the opposite.
Alt coins
Are just crap and we know it. While we 'use' bitcoin at least for some stuff, the altcoins are just a way to make money in the shade of bitcoin. There is no value at all in altcoins, but since the noobs want something and can't affort bitcoin (because they can only think in whole bitcoins) the start buying altcoins. And more noobs does, so the price is going up, hooray!
The scam of Trading platforms
I've been following trades on for example Bitfinex, there are people who know how to influence the price for sure. Some big players (you call them whales) who laught at all the noobs while they are just pumping the price to a new high. It's far from transparent.
Bad money
They have discovered bitcoin. When bad money comes in, good money runs away. It's an old fact that will apply to bitcoin.
The actual value
Think about this. Does a single bitcoin is really worth a car? Who is really using it? But so is paper money right? No it's not, we are all using Fiat money. Bitcoin is used by 0.0000000000001% of the people. It's current worth in Fiat money numbers is only a reflection of the greed of humans.
But it's kinda sad because the blockchain is an amazing technology. So is the IP protocol btw, but no one has come up to put a price tag an that technology. Thank God, there would be no internet today.
1 - Bitcoin in the short-term will not be an alternative to fiat but an alternative to gold. But there will come a day in the future when price of commodities will be quantified in satoshis rather than dollars
2 - You answered yourself. There is only a finite volume and as Bitcoin is gradually adopted into the mainstream, the value can only go in one direction. The reason it's not just a bubble is due to the fact that blockchain is the future of which there can be no question.
3 - This is something I do agree with. Mining is energy inefficient.
4 - You think it's unstable only because you have contradicted yourself and measured its value in fiat
5 - There are a few Altcoins with a dedicated, solid team behind it. When blockchain goes fully mainstream, those who believed in these Altcoins will reap rich rewards.
6 - Smart people know a pump and dump when they see one. All trading entails a risk of being burned, not only in Crypto.
7 - Bad money is already in Bitcoin but Bitcoin did not CREATE bad money. Bad money exists in fiat too.
8 - Bitcoin is used by roughly 0.2-0.3 % of the world