48 hrs later, still no change.
Did the rewards system change and my puny brain just doesn't understand it? Or did the difficulty peak or something?
you did not start mining until block 33,419. Look at the BlocksAuth page. That block does not yet have 120 confirms (It has 88 at this time). Once that gets 120, you will start to receive payment, when the block after that gets 120 confirms, you will be paid out for that.
I do not see where the confusion lies.
Are you saying you were mining before that point in time?