A few things has to happen.
- People realize BTC's flaws - slow and high tx fees. Like it makes headlines news.
- USD to alt gateways. Make alt coins easier to buy with USD. I wouldn't even be buying btc to buy alts if this were the case.
- Adoption of other cryptos.
- Some major FUD that will cause a great crash equivalent or greater than China bans.
All these combined then maybe.
First off, good points. It is true that those reasons may affect and decrease bitcoin value. However, I think the most imminent contributor of its price drop is the upcoming fork. However, based on previous trends although it may drop down its value, it would claw its way back. Hopefully, it will not fall so low for our good.