if you want to track bitcoin price will be crazy because it break all normal rules and always up
I'll add one more principle of investment:Wishful thinking and investment decision making cannot coexist.
When will bitcoin be $100,000 per BTC?
I don't know what you seek to achieve by predicting the crash of bitcoin and even setting a standard that has already been surpassed. Yesterday, bitcoin reached a high level of $7800 which makes your predicted cap to not only be wrong but already defeated. With all the features and steps that you have analysed above, if there is a thing that bitcoin is fond of, its about reacting otherwise to proven and established principles like the one you have quoted.
If this is your view, I have nothing more to comment.