Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: What if network hash rate drops?
by
suryc
on 12/06/2013, 07:19:14 UTC
This is never gonna happen, but interesting to think about: if I understand correctly, the bitcoin network difficulty adjusts every 2000 or so blocks, in order to keep blocks being generated once every 10 minutes.

Now at current network hash rate of 130 TH/s (well, more like 150 TH/s recently), the difficulty is 15,605,633. What if suddenly the network hash rate drops by 90%? Although the difficulty will adjust downwards to compensate, that difficulty will take 2000 blocks to "readjust" since it doesn't happen instantaneously.

But if the network hash rate is reduced by 90%, it'll take a looooooong time to generate 2000 blocks before the network difficulty compensates. Is it feasible that a sudden, extended drop in hash rate will lead to a long, dry spell due to the lag time before the difficulty drops in response?

Also possible, albeit very unlikely, are the potential for intentional sabotage or some kind of natural disaster. I don't know if all of Asic Miners capability is in one location/region, but if it is, that would be dangerous. If for some reason 20% of the network suddenly disappeared that would significantly slow things down. But again its a very improbable scenario.