Correct - the problem with larger process and power hungry hardware is it's longevity. This is why BFL is still winning the race even though they've just started shipping.

Nothing in this thread is new information. We've always expected a spike in hash rate and difficulty upon asic release... followed by a low btc price because of miners cashing out to recoup investments.

The only real question is: after how many cycles will it end?

If you got a BFL single in the next 2 week - it would pay for itself in the first week. Even with new prices - and assuming BFL had stock on hand to ship - how many weeks before the difficulty gets so high that you don't think it's reasonable to buy more hardware. This is what we're dealing with.

But then - the weak hands are already buying inferior tech in a mad race to see who bankrupts themselves first. In some period of time (as the btc price crashes low and velocity slows way down) how many of them will turn of their miners - how many will sell them. (hint: you're seeing people trying to unload avalon hardware for insane markups already). How many will simply run the miners in the red... paying electricity out of pocket to accumulate bitcoin?

The only valid moves at this point are to buy as much 'most power friendly' asic gear as you can afford and mine with it until you've recouped all costs. That or just stop. The sooner the idiots figure this out the more stable the global hash-rate will become.