There is another potential ASIC investor scenario that would have the opposite effect of the one you describe. The investor has BTC either bought or mined when bitcoins were "cheap". They spend BTC to buy ASIC miners, in essence doubling down on their BTC investment. Those BTC get converted to USD now creating selling pressure on the price. If/when the ASICs arrive they then use the ASIC equipment to restock/"hoard" the BTC they spent on the machinery.
I think both scenarios will play out but I have no clue in what percentages they will exist.
Yes this is definitely true. But if what has been seen in the KnC miner thread is a general trend, there are a worrying amount of people who aren't using btc. They are using credit cards, bank transfers and apparently someone even paid with cash.
The price of btc has dropped more than 30% in the last week and is bouncing along at $100. I'm not sure there are many people around that have been in a market with this kind of volatility. The people that have to sell to pay off their debt will sell at any profitable price as they have no idea where the price will be next week.