Whether it happens sooner or later, I agree completely with your projections.  Owners of cutting edge mining technology have a huge advantage right now and profitability is great, but it's an advantage that a very small minority enjoys.  Eventually, everybody who wants to participate in mining will have to obtain specialized hardware or they will turn to scrypt coins.  Bitcoin mining will be performed by specialized equipment; it simply won't be profitable otherwise.  A few powerful groups will dominate the end-state of the currency.  It’s a lot less utopian than people think it will be.