Is there an actual reason why BTC will drop once it hits $10k other than the fact that everyone is saying it will happen?
The value of anything is what we collectively want it to be, so if we all think 10K is the top, then it will be the top.
In the past we've had these bubbles (the general pattern is: way up, way down, up, stable):
$2 -> 7 -> 4 -> 5 and it stayed around $5 for a while. (40 and 30% loss from high)
$5 -> 17 -> 7 -> 10 and it stayed around $10 for a while. (60 and 40% loss from high)
$10 -> 250 -> 50 -> 100 and it stayed around $100 for a while. (80 and 60% loss from high)
$100 -> 1,100 -> 400 -> 600 (60 and 40% loss from high) and then it entered a down trend all the way to 250 (80% loss from high).
You can look at the chart here and see it for yourself:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd10k is a really nice round number, everybody has made incredible gains this year, euphoria is rampant, and everybody is worried about a crash.
What do you make of that?
Here is what I make of it:
$600 -> 12,000 (20x increase) -> 5000 -> 7000 -> And then god knows. It could go down to 3000 and under, or just stay around 7000 for a while before the next bubble.
And that's with the 60%-40% pattern. If it turned out to be more like 80%-60% that would mean the price going straight down to under 3000, then back up to 5000.
So I don't think 10K is the top. We will push past it in a last and desperate attempt to reach the moon (because we are greedy as fuck) then dreams will be shattered and much patience will be required.