The problem is that there are so many predictions that no one knows which to follow. Whilst he may have done a correct prediction now, he may just as well be wrong next time

how about just stop following what others say and come up with your own "prediction". everyone who has ever made some speculation has some reasons behind it, read them and learn from their speculation. try to analyze why they come up with it and also try to figure out which one is true and which one is far fetched.